Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Worst Case Scenario – A lesson in Optimism

Silly post after a long time. But right now, in the heat of the moment, I really must write. I’m generally an optimistic fellow. At times when I need to plan for something, I tell myself - “Hey, in the worst case, this may go wrong and…” and if it sounds quite bad, I add “but the probability of the worst case scenario actually occurring is very low”. So a quick thought about the worst case and the belief that worst case will almost never occur, helps me keep an optimistic outlook.

But today is different. The worst case actually happened! It was a small thing: had a meeting at Greater Noida 9:30 am in the morning, and I reach the bus stand at 7:30 am to catch the direct bus (air conditioned too). The estimated travel time by bus would be around 1 hour 20 minutes. So far so good. The transport officials at the stop tell me the bus should be here “soon”, as it is supposed to start at Ghaziabad 7:00 am. So I wait. At 8:00 am there’s still no bus. Now I get a bit impatient, but tell myself that it will be along by 8:15 at most, and I’ll make it.

8:30 am and no bus. Now I know the only way to make it is by own transport. I call my brother (who needed to go to his college in the same area, only an hour later than me) and ask him to get the bike to the stop, and we’ll go on the bike from there. Revised estimate says if I start 8:45 I may make it by 9:35. Surprise – there’s a massive traffic jam between my home (around 2 km away) and where I wait. Apparently the traffic lights were not working, and Homo moronus drivers had violated every traffic rule in the book to bring vehicle movement to a complete standstill. At times like these I wish I had one of those battle tanks from my old video games that could shoot vehicles into dust and make way, but this is digressing from my narrative. So, what should have taken at most ten minutes takes my brother much more, and he gets the car (Dad thought bike is not good in the heat) to me around 9:30. I cancel the meeting, re-schedule it for some other time and head back home via a long detour to avoid the jam. Back home at 9:50.

Why do I call it the worst case? Well I was up early and at the bus stand at 7:30 am, but the bus never arrived, and the roads got jammed real bad (that too between a small stretch from my home to the stop), resulting in my returning back to my place 2 and 1/2 hours after I started. No meeting accomplished. The great heat doesn’t help either. Pretty much what I’d call the worst case. Of course things could have been worse, like a road accident, but those scenarios I never consider.

So what’s with the whole rant about waiting in the heat and not making it to the meeting? Well the first statement of the post already claims this is a silly one! Bottom line – once in a while the worst case scenario is bound to occur. However, two worst case scenarios one after another has an even lower probability, so I am going to be very optimistic for the next few days. :)